FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

Voting Rights How Majority-Minority Districts Fueled Diversity In Congress And why people of color are winning more seats outside of those districts too.

Neil Paine was the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. He previously wrote for ESPN Insider, The New York Times and Sports-Reference.com and consulted for the NBA’s Atlanta Hawks.

Live election results and coverage of the race for Chicago mayor and Wisconsin Supreme Court. Earlier, we had the latest news and analysis on Donald Trump’s arraignment in New York, after a ...

For the past two weeks, the passion of the World Baseball Classic has been on full display. There was the indefatigable cheer squad for Chinese Taipei; Joey Men… ...

Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of… ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

Economy Are We Headed For A Recession Or Not? Why our usual economic indicators aren't pointing in a clear direction.

Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of h… ...

2024 Republican Primary How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go History presents three possible paths.

Twitter How Americans Really Feel About Elon Musk Hint: His unscientific polls don’t tell us much.

When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans ...